Madison Wisconsin Homes and Real Estate: Packer NFC Championship Games Move the Dane County Real Estate Market

Monday, January 17, 2011

Packer NFC Championship Games Move the Dane County Real Estate Market

Those were the days my friend, we thought they'd never end...ahh the Glory Days. God loved the Green Bay Packers on Sunday and every other day ending in "Y". Everyone was happy and it showed in the economic indicators. We were buying more & bigger houses, traveling to Super Bowls, and spending big money on fat cigars, and SUV's. From 1995 through January 1998, the Packers played in 3 straight NFC Championship games, at Dallas in January '95, winning at home against Carolina, and on the road against San Francisco. We were young, money grew on trees, and neighborhoods replaced corn as a cash crop so farmers turned into developers.

We felt good about everything and everything began with the Green Bay Packers. The economy boomed. Is there a correlation between a Packer NFC Championship game and a boost in housing sales in Dane County?

1995 had 3656 Dane County Home sales (non-condos) 1996 after losing to Dallas in the Championship game, Dane County Posted 4142 sales. That's a plus 486.
1996 was bested in 1997 with 4267 sales after the Packers beat Carolina and went on to win Super Bowl XXXI. It looked like every little thing was gonna be alright. That's a plus 125.
1997 was then trounced in 1998 after the Packers beat San Francisco for the right to go to Super Bowl XXXII and be the sacrificial lambs to the rise of John Elway's legendary status. Even with a Super Bowl sized depression, Dane County recorded 4868 sales. The 601 more home sales took some of the agony out of defeat. Buying and selling was therapeutic.

Yes, it appears the Packers in the NFC Championship Game is good for Dane County home sales. If my math is right, the average bump for appearing in the NFC Championship Game is about 6%. The total number of sales increased by the enthusiasm for being a party to the excitement was 1212 sales. (12 is the number of Aaron Rodgers. Just an observation)

It's always possible that there are other factors contributing to the activity in our housing market so I looked to recent history. The 90's were long over, and the Packers were on their third "Mike" head coach. Following the 2007 season, when 6744 homes were sold in Dane County, the Packers hosted the New York Giants in January 2008 in the NFC Championship Game. Having never lost a championship game in Green Bay, and led by a grizzled quarterback, the Packers were heavy favorites to beat the Giants. All good things must come to an end; the Packers lost when the Old Gunslinger froze up in overtime.

It was probably a sign of things to come when part way through the spring market the perennial waffler lost his direction. He didn't know if he was coming or going. In or out, up or down, the precipitous slide of Brett and the Dane County housing market was underway. We might have been able to pull it together economically and then the Old Textslinger let it be known he wanted to wear purple and instead the Packer brass railroaded him to The Big Apple.  A pall spread over Wisconsin--and American.

We could still smile, but we were no longer young. Every grandmother's favorite son had left home. Somber days were upon us.   In Dane County only 5336 homes sold in 2008, down from 6744 in '07. The 1408 home sale decline wiped out all of the upward mobility generated by the Packer's '90's NFC Championship Games.

When I ciphered the numbers 1212 and a negative 1408 I saw the net loss was 196 sales. There's a   message in that bottle; the numbers 1+9+ 6 total 16, and 1 + 6 equals 7. Now it gets complicated, so listen carefully. This is good news for us. Don "Majic Man" Majkowski wore number 7. Seven is a lucky number. And luckily for the Packers, Majic got hurt and Favre took over in '92. Three years later the Packers started playing in championship games and home sales took off. Aaron Rodgers has been in charge for 3 years now...Got it?

What does all of this tell us? Let's see---Expect the number of real estate sales to increase some, or decrease a lot this year. And while we don't know if the Packers will be playing in the Super Bowl, we can be confident the Bears won't. Let the good times roll! Happy days are here again. The evidence is in the numbers.

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If Not Sold in the First 30 Days, Successful Sellers Conceded The Price

Through Mid-September, thirty seven percent (37%) of 126 home owners who sold in 2010 sold without making a single price concession. They typically attracted a buyer within 40 days of going on to the market. These successful owners conceded little on price as they sold for about 97%-98% of asking price.

Those who counted time on the market by months or even quarters eventually sold for an average of 91% of their initial asking price. Price reductions improved their success opportunity. Once their price was reduced to a price favorable to a buyer, the time on the market was short--about 34 days from last price change to accepted offer.

See September 20, Buyer Enticing Pricing

Disclosure

The source of data: South Central WI MLS Type of data: Single family homes and maybe condos and maybe other Areas: Madison and other areas such as McFarland, Shorewood Hills, Middleton, Maple Bluff, Oregon, DeForest, Cross Plains, Dane County, Fitchburg, Verona, did I say Middleton? Dates covered in these blog posts: January 2010 and continuing.

All comments are the relatively well thought out opinions of Tom Meyer. Those opinions are not necessarily shared by Restaino & Associates, other brokers, or the national, local, or state associations of Realtors... in fact, they may be significantly different.