Real Estate Today. Eliminate Peril, Enhance the Experience, Move the Recovery.

The classic movie Jaws, the first one not the sequels, is the story of America's real estate world. All is well in the world until disaster strikes the innocent, happy go lucky victim in the middle of the night. The grotesque remains wash up on shore and the government rallies the citizens to attack the unknown source of evil quickly to restore confidence so the economic well being of the community can be restored before the profit season begins. With all the usual suspects rounded up in the  sea and slaughtered, the Mayor declares it safe to go back in the water. Business as usual. Come on down. The water's fine. Jump in. You'll be safe... Whoa to you young fella (Chief Brody) who dares to challenge leadership and suggest caution.

Of course we know how that story goes; the threat is declared over too soon and more people suffer disaster. The town folks make a few bucks off of the tourists, but then the tourists leave but now they are not going to be so easily persuaded to come back. Fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice....I don't trust you.

The government first time homebuyer tax incentive is real estate's version of opening the beaches too soon. Many of those buyers churned our commission checks, closing fees, and mortgage origination fees to keep some businesses open, but the buyer may have had their legs chewed off by buying and overpaying in the only competitive market of the time---below $250,000.  The little equity they had in the transaction (3% down) vanished as soon as  the buyers left the scene. The serious business of recovery  began only last year.

If a Realtor has any value in the recovery, it's in the area of eliminating unreasonable risk for the consumer of our services. With a year of untampered markets behind us, the buying and selling journey has a solid base of sales. Those sales are what underwriting needs to establish values on which to approve financing applications. Appraisers have sales to use to evaluate value in the manner required by the underwriters. Realtors have data to use to inform their buying and selling clients on what might be reasonable price. Owners can make decisions to place their homes on the market or sit out knowing what is probable instead of hopeful.

Now that the underwriting process is on more solid ground, it is imperative that no government interference with incentives muddy the water.  The bankers, realtors, appraisers in the proces know what to expect. We know where the pitfalls are (unsubstantiated prices, unapproved buyers, defects in the homes, underwater mortgages). We can navigate. The waters are not treacherous. Jaws may have gone out to sea. The more consumer sentiment moves to feel safe, the more people will come back to the process of buying and selling, and moving on with their lives.  Mess with their serenity and we'll be watching a sequel... and we know the sequels suck.